The 30-year Treasury yield touched a new record low at 1.873% US30YT=RR, also down 8 bps on the day. Focus is likely to turn to the yield curve - the gap between short- and long-dated bond yields. China’s bond market has just turned upside down again. But unlike in the U.S. -- where an inverted yield curve can signal an impending recession -- there’s much less reason for President Xi China yield curve inverted as regulators target leverage risk. The yield on Chinese five-year government bonds hit its highest since 2014 on Friday, as tight liquidity and a regulatory crackdown on leveraged investment caused a rarely seen inversion of the yield curve. A persistent wholesale funding squeeze and yield-curve inversion in a relatively opaque and interconnected financial system are signals of strain; they should be taken seriously by both policymakers and investors. For more on China and our growth outlook, please read, “ A Less ‘Impulsive’ China: Bracing for Lower Growth.” The sages will tell you that yield-curve inversion is about as good a prognosticator of a coming recession as there is. But inversion first occurred back in March 2019, then briefly reversed, only Still, even when it does predict a recession, yield curve inversion is, on average, 22 months early, according to Credit Suisse. China announced earlier Friday that it will retaliate against new The China 10Y Government Bond has a 3.241% yield. 10 Years vs 2 Years bond spread is 47 bp. Normal Convexity in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities. Central Bank Rate is 4.20% (last modification in September 2019). The China credit rating is A+, according to Standard & Poor's agency.
29 May 2019 Investors are gearing up for what likely will be a prolonged trade war with China. They are also dealing with a slowing of global growth, slower 5 Jun 2019 Even if the yield curve inversion doesn't mean there's going to be a potential recessions, Brexit, Mexico tariffs or the trade war with China? 26 Apr 2019 It happened – the dreaded 'inverted yield curve'. weakness of the yield curve inversion, along with more optimistic outlooks for China and the
The 30-year Treasury yield touched a new record low at 1.873% US30YT=RR, also down 8 bps on the day. Focus is likely to turn to the yield curve - the gap between short- and long-dated bond yields. China’s bond market has just turned upside down again. But unlike in the U.S. -- where an inverted yield curve can signal an impending recession -- there’s much less reason for President Xi China yield curve inverted as regulators target leverage risk. The yield on Chinese five-year government bonds hit its highest since 2014 on Friday, as tight liquidity and a regulatory crackdown on leveraged investment caused a rarely seen inversion of the yield curve. A persistent wholesale funding squeeze and yield-curve inversion in a relatively opaque and interconnected financial system are signals of strain; they should be taken seriously by both policymakers and investors. For more on China and our growth outlook, please read, “ A Less ‘Impulsive’ China: Bracing for Lower Growth.” The sages will tell you that yield-curve inversion is about as good a prognosticator of a coming recession as there is. But inversion first occurred back in March 2019, then briefly reversed, only
The China 10Y Government Bond has a 3.241% yield. 10 Years vs 2 Years bond spread is 47 bp. Normal Convexity in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities. Central Bank Rate is 4.20% (last modification in September 2019). The China credit rating is A+, according to Standard & Poor's agency. Investors are spooked by a scenario known as the “inverted yield curve,” which occurs when the interest rates on short-term bonds are higher than the interest rates paid by long-term bonds. What does a Yield Curve Inversion mean, and what might it indicate for the U.S. Economy? Let's take a look at the history of the connection between recession and Yield Curve Inversion to help us After all, the yield curve inverted roughly 14 months before each of the past nine U.S. recessions. Others say a slowdown isn't a sure thing and that the yield curve is a red flag, not a divining rod. Is China’s Yield Curve Signaling A Further Economic Slowdown? Why China’s yield curve became inverted and what it means for the economy. In the bond market, an inverted yield curve has often predicted recession in developed economies.
25 Mar 2019 On the one hand, an inverted yield curve is no big deal – or even good news This raises the question of where China is in its credit cycle, and 13 Aug 2018 Past economic cycles have shown us that yield curve inversions were not a Despite further escalations in the US-China trade dispute, steady The 30-year Treasury yield touched a new record low at 1.873% US30YT=RR, also down 8 bps on the day. Focus is likely to turn to the yield curve - the gap between short- and long-dated bond yields.